STM-D-0711Paper1969Published and peer-reviewed

Toward a theory of ball lightning

J. J. Lowke · M. A. Uman · R. W. Liebermann

Summary and citation · read the original at the source · none found

In one page

This is John Lowke’s first attempt at ball lightning, written in 1969 with Martin Uman and R. W. Liebermann, and it is a model of how to take an anecdotal phenomenon and force it to answer to numbers. The authors postulate that a lightning stroke leaves behind a large sphere of heated material, then compute what such a sphere would actually do: temperature profile, radiated light and average mass density against time, with heat conduction, radial convection and the emission and absorption of radiation all included. Three recipes are tested — plain hot air, air seeded with a little sodium vapour, and mixtures of carbon or copper vapour with air. The verdict is honest and useful. Hot air and sodium-seeded air are lighter than their surroundings, so those balls rise, which real ones do not. The metal-vapour mixture can match the density of air and stay put, but it does not give off enough visible light.

Why it matters hereChapter 9 begins with the fact that self-organised luminous balls are reported and have to be accounted for, and this paper set the two numerical hurdles every later account has had to clear at once: neutral buoyancy and sustained visible output. Chapter 1 uses it as a worked example of the evidence ladder in action — a hypothesis stated, calculated, and then narrowed by its own results rather than defended.

What it claims

01The starting postulate is that ball lightning is initiated by a lightning stroke that forms a large sphere of heated material, and the paper tests that postulate by computing what such a sphere would do rather than by argument.Abstract, Journal of Geophysical Research 74, 6887 to 6898
Published and peer-reviewed
02Three model families are computed: cooling spheres of air; cooling spheres of air containing small amounts of sodium vapour; and cooling spheres of mixtures that are by weight either carbon vapour and air or copper vapour and air.Abstract, Journal of Geophysical Research 74, 6887 to 6898
Published and peer-reviewed
03For each model the authors calculate the temperature profile, the output radiation and the average mass density as a function of time, taking account of energy transfer by conduction, by radial convection, and by the emission and absorption of radiation.Abstract, Journal of Geophysical Research 74, 6887 to 6898
Published and peer-reviewed
04The hot-air and sodium-seeded models fail on buoyancy: the spheres are lighter than the surrounding air and therefore rise, which is not what observed ball lightning does.Abstract, Journal of Geophysical Research 74, 6887 to 6898
Published and peer-reviewed
05The metal-vapour and carbon-vapour model clears the buoyancy hurdle — its average mass density can approximate that of air, so the ball does not rise — but it fails the light test, emitting insufficient visible radiation to match reports.Abstract, Journal of Geophysical Research 74, 6887 to 6898
Published and peer-reviewed
06The authors name the way forward themselves: chemical processes at the boundary between the sphere of suspended particles and the surrounding air, left out of these calculations, could supply a relatively constant emission of light. Chemistry at the surface, not stored heat in the interior, is where the luminosity would have to come from.Abstract, closing sentence, Journal of Geophysical Research 74, 6887 to 6898
What to watch

The way in

https://doi.org/10.1029/jc074i028p06887LICENCE. Published as Journal of Geophysical Research volume 74, issue 28, pages 6887 to 6898, 10 October 1969, by J. J. Lowke, M. A. Uman and R. W. Liebermann. Licence checked directly on 2026-09-08: Crossref lists only Wiley’s text-and-data-mining licence, and Crossref, Unpaywall and OpenAlex all return closed with a null licence; no Creative Commons statement exists and no repository copy was found. SOURCE. The publisher’s full text is paywalled and returned no copy to any fetch attempt. The summary and the claims below are written from the authors’ own abstract, recovered from the OpenAlex record for this digital object identifier, together with the bibliographic record; the locators cite the abstract and the article’s page range rather than interior sections, and the complete paper is at the source. Author affiliations are not asserted here because the article itself could not be read. Companion sheets: Lowke’s 1996 electric-discharge theory at /library/stm-72cecea529, his 2021 paper with Heil, Tam and Murphy on ball lightning in houses and aircraft at /library/stm-7f78f41fde, and Alexander Keul’s history of ball lightning observations by scientists and trained professionals at /library/stm-48b6e644d4.

How to cite it

J. J. Lowke, M. A. Uman, R. W. Liebermann (1969) Toward a theory of ball lightning. doi:10.1029/jc074i028p06887

Where it sits in the curriculum

Plasmoids, charge clusters and the orbs The evidence ladder