# Learner lab record: Blinded residual and search-penalty analysis

Course: Experimental design, inference, and reproducibility

Name: ____________________  Date: ____________________  Group: ____________________

## Investigation question

When does a local residual remain credible after correlated uncertainty, injection recovery, and the declared search space are included?

## Setup

Use the blinded-analysis laboratory. Freeze the model and cuts, inspect a baseline null ensemble, then test one hidden injection and apply the declared search adjustment.

## Variables

| Variable | Role | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Trial count and independent noise | design inputs | count and signal unit |
| Correlated systematic | shared uncertainty input | signal unit |
| Injected signal | validation input | signal unit |
| Local and adjusted significance | dependent diagnostics | σ or probability |

## Predict before changing controls

1. Predict whether more trials remove a fully correlated offset.

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2. Predict how a larger declared search count changes global significance.

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## Observation table

| trials | independent σ | correlated σ | injection | recovered? | local result | adjusted result |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |

## Analyze

1. Which uncertainty term averages down?

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2. Did the pipeline recover the known injection within tolerance?

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3. Why can a local detection become a global non-detection?

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4. What decision must be frozen before unblinding?

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## Evidence-bounded conclusion

The pipeline produced local ___ and adjusted ___ across ___ searches; injection recovery was ___, so the preregistered decision is ___.

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