# Learner lab record: DIRD claim-provenance and forecast audit

Course: DIRD critical-reading seminar

Name: ____________________  Date: ____________________  Group: ____________________

## Investigation question

Which claims are directly sourced, which are inferences, and which dated forecasts survived contact with later evidence?

## Setup

Use the claim graph. Select one central DIRD proposition, trace every dependency to a dated primary source or marked inference, and score one forecast using only evidence available by the declared cutoff.

## Variables

| Variable | Role | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Claim node and evidence cutoff | audit inputs | identifier and date |
| Source type and dependency path | provenance inputs | category and edges |
| Claim confidence | evaluated output | declared tier |
| Forecast outcome and calibration | dependent audit | score |

## Predict before changing controls

1. Predict which dependency would most change the central claim if removed.

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2. Record a forecast score before reading post-cutoff commentary.

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## Observation table

| claim | source/date | direct or inferred | dependency | pre-cutoff confidence | outcome | updated confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |

## Analyze

1. Is the commissioned scope distinct from evidentiary support?

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2. Which edge relies on secondary retelling?

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3. Did later commentary introduce hindsight drift?

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4. What adversarial source would most efficiently test the claim?

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## Evidence-bounded conclusion

Claim ___ rests on ___ direct sources and ___ inference steps; forecast ___ scored ___ at cutoff ___, so the evidence tier is ___ pending ___.

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